‘A Critical Scenario’: Hostilities on Iran Squeezes India's LPG Supplies.

The repercussions of a military engagement being fought nearly 3,000km away are now reaching India's households.

As aerial attacks on Iran impede energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, supplies of cooking gas are tightening across India, pushing restaurants to cut menus, shorten hours and in some cases close completely.

Social media is flooded by video clips showing queues outside cooking-gas dealers across Indian urban and rural areas as concerns over fuel supplies spread. Businesses appear the most affected: the biggest crunch is in restaurant kitchens.

"The situation is dire. LPG simply is unavailable," says a official of the National Restaurant Association of India.

Most food outlets run either on industrial fuel canisters or direct gas lines, and the scarcities are now being noticed across the country. "A lot of restaurants have ceased operations - some in Delhi, many in the southern states. People are adopting coal and wood and induction stoves to keep their operations going."

Regional Impact

In a western metro, accounts say up to a significant portion of hotels and restaurants are already completely or partially closed as business fuel stocks tighten. In the southern cities of tech and coastal hubs, some restaurants say their gas stocks have dwindled with minimal reserves. "We can only make coffee and nothing else - it is truly dismal. Operations will be impacted," says a business operator in Bengaluru.

Restaurant managers are rushing to adjust. "Offering lists are shrinking, some are cutting lunch service and reducing hours," an industry representative says, adding that shutdowns are changing as supplies come and go. "Three restaurants in Delhi were shut yesterday - two have already reopened. It's a changing landscape."

Retailers report a increase in sales of electric cookers, with some saying they are running out of them.

Authority's View

Yet, the officials maintains there is adequate supply.

India has more than a vast number of home fuel subscribers and authorities say cylinders are being prioritized to households as tensions from the Middle East conflict affect energy markets.

About a majority of India's LPG is sourced from abroad, and about the vast majority of those imports pass through the key maritime route, the narrow Gulf chokepoint now largely blocked by the hostilities.

The oil ministry says that it instructed refineries to maximise LPG output for household consumption, raising domestic production by about a quarter. Business-grade fuel is being reserved for essential sectors such as hospitals and educational institutions, while distribution will be "fair and transparent".

"A degree of anxious stocking and accumulation has been sparked by false reports. The standard supply timeline for domestic LPG remains about under three days," says a government spokesperson.

Growing Panic

Now the anxiety is moving beyond kitchens. On social media, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a long, snaking queue of motorbikes outside a petrol pump. "Concern is genuine," the text reads.

According to data from industry analysts, concerns about India's broader energy security may be premature.

India imports 90% of its oil. Around half of its oil purchases - about 2.5-2.7 million barrels a day - travel through the waterway, largely from Middle Eastern nations.

Even if petroleum transit through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted, the gap could be partly offset by higher imports of discounted Russian crude, according to a industry commentator.

Based on shipping data and expert analysis, incremental Russian crude imports could reach around a significant volume of barrels a day, lessening India's effective gap from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.

"A large quantity of Russian oil barrels are currently on the water in the Indian Ocean and, with only India and China as major buyers, those barrels remain a ready fallback," an analyst noted.

Cooking Gas: The Critical Weakness

The primary concern is kitchen fuel, commentators observe.

India consumes roughly a million barrels a day, but produces only a minority share domestically, importing the rest - 80–90% through the chokepoint.

Refineries can adjust processes to produce a bit more LPG, but even a moderate increase would only raise domestic supply to about under half of demand, leaving the country significantly leaning on imports.

In short: "Oil import vulnerability can be somewhat alleviated through varied suppliers. Processed petroleum stocks remains relatively comfortable. LPG availability is the real variable to track in the coming weeks."

What may be worsening the anxiety on the ground is not just tight supply but patchy deliveries - and the usual problem of stockpiling.

An industry representative claims price gouging.

"Distributors are misusing the situation - black-marketing cylinders and selling them at a high cost. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being stockpiled and sold at a premium."

For now, India's petroleum stocks may be buffered by worldwide shipping. But in kitchens across the country, the more pressing concern is simple: how to get the next cylinder.